Mathematical modeling approach to crime and prediction of criminological patterns

Ghavami Pour Sereshkeh, Mohadeseh; Mahmoudi, Amirreza

doi:10.22034/aqcr.2025.2048687.1044

Mathematical modeling approach to crime and prediction of criminological patterns

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

mohadeseh ghavami pour sereshkeh ¹

Amirreza mahmoudi ²

¹ PhD Candidate in Criminal Law and Criminology, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran. (Author). Email: mohadesehghavamipour@liau.ac.ir

² Assistant Professor, Department of Law, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran. Email: amirreza.mahmodi@gmail.com

10.22034/aqcr.2025.2048687.1044

Abstract

Field and Aims: This research examine advanced applications of mathematical methods in criminology and sheds light on their role in analyzing and modeling complex social phenomena such as crime. The main goal is to analyze the capabilities of mathematical models in identifying crime patterns, predicting future trends, and evaluating the effectiveness of preventive strategies.
Method: The research was conducted in a theoretical and descriptive-analytical manner, using a literature review and analysis of mathematical models. Mathematical approaches including dynamical systems, network analysis, and game theory were examined, and empirical data were used to adapt these models.
Findings and Conclusions: The findings show that mathematical models are able to identify spatiotemporal patterns of crime, such as hot spots and revictimization, and predict future trends. They also provide tools for simulating criminal behavior and evaluating the effects of preventive policies. The potential of these methods in designing crime reduction strategies and developing operational tools is emphasized.

Keywords

Criminology

Mmodeling

Mathematics

Crime Patterns

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